October 20. 2023

New Delhi, India

Oil Price Rises

Oil prices experienced a significant 2% surge as a combination of factors stirred the market. The key drivers behind this rally were a bigger-than-expected draw in US crude oil storage and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

US Crude Stocks Decline

In a surprising turn of events, US crude stocks witnessed a substantial drop of 4.5 million barrels during the week ending on October 13. Analysts had anticipated a mere 0.3 million barrel draw, making this unexpected decline a major contributor to the surge in oil prices. The drawdown marked the fourth decrease in crude storage in the past five weeks, and it was notably higher than the 1.7 million barrel weekly draw observed a year earlier.

Iran’s Call for an Oil Embargo on Israel

Geopolitical factors also came into play. Iran’s call for an oil embargo on Israel in response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza added to the uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions can often lead to concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, which subsequently contributes to oil prices rise.

OPEC’s Response to Iran’s Call

OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, stated that it plans no immediate action in response to Iran’s call for an oil embargo. This decision introduces an element of uncertainty into the market as it remains to be seen how OPEC’s response, or lack thereof, will impact future oil production and prices.

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Middle East Tensions

The situation in the Middle East further fueled the surge in oil prices. Following a tragic incident at a Gaza hospital that resulted in significant casualties, concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the region escalated. Geopolitical conflicts in oil-producing areas often lead to higher oil prices due to supply concerns.

Oil Price Movement

As a result of these factors, oil prices experienced a robust 2% climb. Brent futures reached $91.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $88.32 on wednesday. The market reacted to the US storage draw, heightened Middle East tensions, and Iran’s call for an oil embargo, all of which combined to push oil prices upward.

In conclusion, the oil market is currently influenced by both supply and geopolitical factors. The larger-than-expected decline in US crude stocks, coupled with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, has propelled oil prices to a two-week high. However, the situation remains fluid, with OPEC’s stance on Iran’s call for an embargo contributing to the market’s uncertainty. Investors and industry experts will be closely watching these developments as they impact the energy market.

At the time of writing this article, Crude Oil WTI Futures is at 88.29, down (-0.09%), and Brent Oil Futures closed at 92.51 up (0.14%).