Morning Briefing: Euro could see fluctuation within 1.05-1.0750 region


Despite the SVB collapse and following effects that were evident yesterday, the ECB is anticipated to raise rates by 50 bps today. For the remainder of the week, market volatility will rise. Watch today’s release of EU CPI figures as well. The current trading ranges for the dollar index and the euro are 103-105/106 and 1.05-1.0750, respectively. The range for EURJPY trading is 146-139, while the range for Dollar Yen holding is 135-132. Pound has been unable to hold above 1.22 and has since declined; a fall below 1.20/18 in the near future cannot be ruled out. As USDCNY and USDRUB have climbed with upside goals of 6.95/96 and 77.20, respectively, Australian has fallen and can trade between 0.6550 and 0.6750. Below 89, EURINR is bearish, and on the upside, USDINR may test the 82.85-83.00 range.

The yields on US Treasuries have fallen below their major supports and are probably going to fall further. The German Yields have once more fallen sharply without rising as a result. The yields have further room to drop. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI’s main supports may be put to the test by falling much farther from their current levels.

When Dow is below 32000, it is bearish. To prevent the risk of dropping further in the upcoming sessions, the DAX must maintain its position above the support of 14650. The Nikkei has dropped below the level of support at 27000 and is most likely to continue to decline in the near future. Shanghai may continue to trade sideways while above the 3225 support level. The Nifty index has fallen towards the crucial support at 16900. We must determine whether or not that holds.

The main supports for Brent and WTI, $75 and $70, have been breached, and additional declines are possible in the near future. Upward in gold might be limited at 1950. Silver’s outlook is ambiguous and it might trade in a range for some time. Copper can potentially fall into its next important support after breaking below the lower limit of the 4.1-3.9 range.

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