EUR/USD Price Analysis: Monthly triangle teases momentum traders near 1.0780 ahead of Fed

  • Between a short-term ascending triangle and a five-week high, EUR/USD struggles to find direction.
  • Long-term trading above the 100-DMA and positive oscillators encourage the four-day rise, but pre-Fed worry presents trading difficulties.
  • Mid-February high strengthens the 1.0800 upside barrier; Euro sellers can exit on a fall below 1.0700.

As pre-Fed concern rises in the early hours of Wednesday, the EUR/USD oscillates between 1.0770 and 0.80. A statement by Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as an ascending triangle formation that has been in place since March 1 may strengthen the cautious attitude.

Also read: Below 1.0800, ECB’s Lagarde observed pre-Fed worry in EUR/USD

Yet, it should be noted that the Euro pair’s successful reversal from the 100-DMA joins the bullish MACD signals and optimistic RSI (14) line, which is not overbought, to provide buyers reason for optimism.

Yet, the EUR/USD pair’s movement is now constrained by the region between 1.0800 and 1.0700. The swing high on February 14 and the late-January low provide the 1.0800 barrier further support. Thus, buyers of the EUR/USD pair face a challenging run to the north.

On the other hand, a downside breach of the 1.0700 support can quickly move the price in the direction of the 1.0595-area 100-DMA support level.

However, the EUR/USD pair’s run-up between late November and early February’s 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, or about 1.0530, may then test the bears.

In the meantime, if the 1.0800 resistance confluence is successfully broken, the next objective will be the high from January, which was about 1.0930, followed by the YTD high from February, which was around 1.1035.