USDINR Outlook for 2024: Indian Rupee Softens Amid Global Influences

Indian Rupee

January 2, 2024

New Delhi, India


On the opening trading day of 2024, the Indian Rupee (INR) exhibited a subdued performance against the US Dollar (USD). This article delves into the factors influencing the USDINR pair, combining insights from economic projections, global market dynamics, and technical analysis.

Indian Economy on the Rise: The Finance Ministry’s half-yearly economic review report projects India’s economy to surpass the government’s estimated growth of 6.5% in FY24. Positive indicators, including a steady INR and substantial foreign reserves, bolster confidence in India’s external sector.

USDINR Dynamics and Global Factors: Traders are closely monitoring the USD/INR pair, anticipating the influence of US Dollar dynamics. Key among these factors is the upcoming release of US labour data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, scheduled later this week.

Also Read: India’s Direct Tax Collections Set to Triple Under Modi’s 10-Year Rule 

RBI Interventions and Market Movements: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has actively intervened in foreign currency markets to maintain a narrow range for the USD/INR pair. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes India’s dollar-selling activities may exceed perceived necessity.

Technical Analysis and Trading Range: Technically, the USD/INR pair has adhered to a multi-month trading band of 82.80–83.40. Key indicators, such as the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest a positive outlook for further upside.

Global Economic Indicators Impact: The US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) weakened in December, potentially impacting the USD’s performance. Market expectations, reflected in the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, indicate an 88% probability of rate cuts in March.


As we navigate the evolving landscape of USDINR, market participants should remain vigilant, considering the interplay of domestic and global factors. The technical analysis provides valuable insights for traders, offering potential support and resistance levels to monitor in the coming weeks.

Also Read: NSE Shifts Bank Nifty Expiry Day to Wednesdays Starting March 1, 2024


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