August 21, 2024
New Delhi, India
Currency Market Analysis
USDINR
The Rupee ended stronger, driven by likely inflows and a sharp decline in the dollar index, which benefited Asian currencies across the board. The Reserve Bank of India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $4.8 billion to $670.12 billion. Additionally, India’s trade deficit widened significantly to $23.50 billion in July 2024, up from $19 billion in the same month last year.
EURINR
The Euro gained as expectations grew that the European economy would avoid stagnation. German producer prices fell the least in 13 months, adding to the optimism. However, the European Central Bank might consider another interest rate cut in September due to ongoing economic weakness.
GBPINR
GBP strengthened on signs of economic resilience and moderate inflation, leading traders to anticipate fewer rate cuts from the Bank of England. Currently, traders expect 44 basis points of rate cuts from the BoE this year, with a 39% chance of a 25-bps cut in September. The British economy expanded by 0.9% year-on-year in Q2 2024, marking the largest annual growth rate since Q3 of the previous year.
JPYINR
The Yen remained steady, supported by firm expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates. Japanese machinery orders rose by 2.1% month-on-month in June, exceeding the forecasted 1.1% increase. Markets are now focused on upcoming domestic inflation data to better understand the Bank of Japan’s future monetary policy direction.
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