May 30, 2025
New Delhi, India
The Indian Rupee (INR) posted modest gains on Friday in the early European session, snapping a three-day losing streak. The recovery was driven by weak US macroeconomic data and renewed doubts over the outlook of US tariff policy under Donald Trump’s leadership.
Fresh pressure on the US Dollar (USD) came after a report in the Wall Street Journal, which stated that the Trump administration may invoke a law permitting tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days—adding to investor uncertainty.
On the domestic front, falling crude oil prices supported the rupee, offering relief to India, the world’s third-largest oil importer. However, month-end dollar demand from importers is likely to cap further appreciation in the local currency.
Focus Turns to GDP and PCE Data
Market participants now shift their focus to two major data releases later today—India’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s real GDP growth at 6.5% for FY26, signaling a strong domestic outlook amid global volatility.
In the US, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24 rose to 240,000, higher than the previous week’s revised reading of 226,000 and above market expectations of 230,000. Continuing Jobless Claims also climbed to 1.919 million, signaling some weakness in the labor market.
Fed Speaks Add to Uncertainty
Remarks from Federal Reserve officials late Thursday added to the cautious tone. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for a “modestly or moderately restrictive policy” to tame inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan maintained that monetary policy is “in a good place,” with inflation and employment risks “roughly balanced.”
Alongside the PCE report, markets will also watch the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Chicago PMI readings for more clues on US economic health.
Disclaimer:
CurrencyVeda provides this news article for informational purposes only. We do not offer investment advice or recommendations. Before making any investment decisions, please conduct thorough research, consult with financial experts, and carefully consider your financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment goals. Investing in the stock market carries risks, and it’s essential to make informed choices based on your individual circumstances. CurrencyVeda is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided in this article.
