February 24 2025
New Delhi, India
USDINR
The Indian Rupee (INR) edged lower on Monday as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold over $11 billion in Indian stocks this year. However, softness in the US Dollar (USD), RBI intervention, and lower crude oil prices could help limit further depreciation.
Key Market Trends:
FPI Outflows Weigh on INR:
- Overseas investors continue to sell Indian stocks, pressuring the rupee.
Supportive Factors:
- US Dollar weakness and RBI intervention may curb excessive depreciation.
- Lower crude oil prices benefit India as a major oil importer.
Upcoming Data to Watch:
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January) due Monday.
- US Q4 GDP preliminary reading set for release on Thursday.
Indian Economy & Market Indicators:
GDP Growth Projection:
- Q3FY25 GDP expected to grow 6.2%, up from 5.4% in Q2 (Union Bank of India).
PMI Data:
- Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 57.1 in February (57.5 in January).
- Services PMI surged to 61.1 (56.5 prior).
- Composite PMI rose to 60.6 (57.7 prior).
Global Market Trends:
- US S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 50.4 (52.7 prior).
- US Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.6 (51.2 prior).
- US Services PMI fell below expectations at 49.7 (52.9 prior).
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropped to 64.7 (67.8 expected).
Market Outlook:
INR’s movement will be influenced by RBI’s intervention, FPI flows, and key US economic data this week.
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