Rupee Flat Against Dollar: Currency Market Analysis

A Research by CurrencyVeda

November 6, 2023

New Delhi, India


During the last trading session, USDINR closed at 83.27 and the trading range for USDINR was between 83.28 and 83.32. The rupee sustained stability amidst active U.S. dollar demand, while market expectations lean towards the central bank’s intervention to prevent further depreciation. India’s fiscal deficit surged to INR 7.02 trillion during April-September 2023-24, causing concerns about a potential dollar shortage, leading to reduced USD/INR swap rates and forward premiums.


EURINR closed at 88.65 in the last session and the trading range for USDINR was between 88.07 to 89.39. The Euro strengthened due to promising data from Germany, fostering hopes that the economic decline in Europe might be less severe. Germany reported a significant drop in its inflation rate to over two-year lows at 3.8% and observed a contraction of 0.1% in the economy during Q3. Additionally, German import prices plummeted by 14.3% year-on-year in September 2023.


During the last trading session, GBPINR closed at 101.79 and the trading range for USDINR was between 100.97 and 101.95. GBP surged as the Bank of England is anticipated to retain unchanged interest rates in its upcoming meeting. Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that the inflation figures for September aligned with the central bank’s projections. Notably, British lenders approved 43,328 mortgages in September, marking the lowest number since January.


During the last trading session, JPYINR closed at between 55.32 and 56.08. The trading range was between 55.51 to 55.42. The Japanese yen depreciated as the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at -0.1% and kept the 10-year JGB yield target around 0%. Japan witnessed a 5.8% year-on-year increase in retail sales during September 2023, slowing down from the 7% upsurge seen in July and August. However, the industrial production in Japan rose only by 0.2% month-over-month in September 2023, missing market forecasts of 2.5%.