February 19, 2024
New Delhi, India
USDINR Today
The Indian Rupee (INR) remained flat on Thursday as persistent FPI outflows and Trump’s tariff threats pressured the currency. However, RBI intervention and lower crude oil prices helped limit losses.
Key Market Trends:
FPI Selloff Impact:
- Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) offloaded $10 billion in Indian equities in six weeks, marking the worst start for domestic markets in a decade.
RBI & Crude Oil Support:
- RBI intervention in USD selling and a dip in crude prices might cushion INR’s downside.
US Economic Events in Focus:
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, CB Leading Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due today.
- Fed officials Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, and Alberto Musalem to speak.
Indian Rupee Performance & Economic Outlook:
Forex Reserves Drop:
- RBI’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $75 billion since September 27.
- INR fell from 83.70 to 87.96 against USD by February 10.
GDP Growth Slowdown:
- India’s Q3 GDP (Oct-Dec 2024) is estimated at 6.6%, down from 8.6% YoY (Bank of Baroda).
US Fed Outlook:
- FOMC minutes: Fed to wait for clear inflation slowdown before rate cuts.
- Philip Jefferson: Fed has time to assess the next rate move.
- Austan Goolsbee: Inflation remains high, delaying rate cuts.
Market Outlook:
INR may trade sideways amid global uncertainty, but RBI intervention and crude price trends will be crucial in shaping the currency’s direction.
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