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USDINR Today: Rupee Falls as US Dollar Strengthens; RBI Intervention Expected

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October 11, 2024

New Delhi, India

USDINR Today

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakened on Friday due to a firmer US Dollar (USD), driven by stronger-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The local currency faced further pressure from continued Indian foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices.

Key Factors Driving INR’s Weakness

  1. US Dollar Strength
    • The USD gained momentum following the release of higher-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which rose 2.4% YoY, compared to 2.3% estimates.
    • Core CPI also exceeded forecasts, adding to market expectations of more Fed rate hikes.
  2. Foreign Fund Outflows
    • Persistent outflows from Indian foreign funds weighed heavily on the rupee, compounding the effects of rising global crude prices.
  3. Crude Oil Prices
    • Elevated crude oil prices put additional strain on the Indian economy, which is a major importer of oil, leading to further rupee depreciation.

RBI Intervention

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb excessive losses in the rupee. This anticipated move has helped to cap the currency’s downside.

Key Data to Watch

  • US Producer Price Index (PPI) for September and the preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October will be key data points influencing the market ahead.
  • On the domestic front, India’s Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output figures are due for release, which could further impact the INR’s performance.

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