New Delhi, India
September 25, 2023
The Indian Rupee is likely to open around 83. The relentless rise in US yields, while propping up the Dollar, has now started to bring on strong risk aversion in risk assets such as equities. The Dollar remains strong due to post-Fed sentiment bolstered by strong jobless claims data. The BOE paused on further hikes after a long time as inflation cooled a bit. Expectations for BOJ policy are due today. Despite the Dollar and US yield onslaught, the Rupee has managed to stay strong. However, if the US yields continue their trajectory, a meaningful Rupee depreciation is possible.
The last traded price of GBPINR was 101.70, down by -0.24%. The day’s range for GBPINR was a high of ₹101.96 and a low of ₹101.48. Expectations for GBPINR include a movement towards 101.40, as long as the pair trades below 102.50. The medium and long-term trends show fluctuations in GBPINR rates.
EURINR closed at 88.31 on September 22, 2023, marking a decrease of -0.1500 (-0.17%). The pair continues to experience downward pressure, primarily influenced by developments in the EUR/USD currency pair.
From a technical perspective, EURINR’s negative outlook aligns with the downward-sloping channel seen in the EUR/USD pair. This channel indicates a well-established bearish trend, suggesting that EURINR is more likely to move lower.
EURINR is anticipated to maintain a bearish stance, with the possibility of a further slide towards the 1.0600 round figure, en route to the ascending channel support, currently situated near the 1.0560-1.0555 region. A break below these levels could signal a fresh bearish breakdown, extending EURINR’s over two-month-old downtrend. However, any significant recovery beyond the 1.0670 area may face strong resistance near 1.0700, followed by the 1.0735 region. Clearing these levels could potentially lead to a near-term bottom formation, potentially resulting in a meaningful appreciating move for EURINR.
The Japanese yen tumbled to its lowest level in nearly a year on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained ultra-low interest rates. Core inflation in Japan hit 3.1% in August, staying above BOJ’s 2% target. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that inflation isn’t slowing as much as expected, and he emphasized the importance of assessing data, particularly wages and service prices, before considering any interest rate hikes. Markets are closely watching yen movements as a key trigger for any potential policy shift. USDJPY is quoting at 148.34, up 0.5% on the day and at a level last seen in October 2022. Meanwhile The last traded price of JPYINR on September 26, 2023, was 56.01, down by -0.41%. The day’s range for JPYINR was a high of ₹56.12 and a low of ₹55.90.